Books smell good but will not last very long
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If you watch this video from the BBC, you will probably agree that books will never be replaced by electronic readers because:
- you can rinse a book after accidentally dropping it in the tub
- book pages do not reflect light like e-readers do when reading at night in your bed
- you do not get mugged for a book, but you could for an e-reader
- books smell good
Well, I think books will be replaced by electronic devices pretty soon, sooner than most people think. The point is that it is very hard to imagine a world without books, but it will happen, although the replacement will not be in the form of the current crop of e-readers which have been designed to mimic the book itself. The real replacement will be more like a PC, in a form similar to the current tablet PC running a browser.
Browsers have been around for a little more than 10 years and they have revolutionized how we communicate, adding hyper links and merging text with audio and video. The browser has already replaced newspapers and encyclopedias, it has helped create forums, blogs and social networks.
What we have not figured out yet is how to evolve the book into something that can be read in a browser. The main reason is not technological, although laptops are still expensive, heavy and with short battery life, but it's clear that overtime these problems will be solved. The main reason is the format: we have not yet created a format that renders the book obsolete enhancing it using hyper links, audio and video.
Basically the comparison between supports, paper vs e-reader, is a wrong one. The real comparison should be done between formats; books are essentially static, written a few years before printing them, and with a very short shelf life. The new format will be something not static at all, maybe a collaborative effort, completely integrated with the NET through links, and it will use audios and videos and who knows what else.
The new format will be very hard to be printed on paper, and that's what will make the book, as we know it today, truly obsolete.
Comments
What if we change "book" with "serial learning"?
You're so right: "The comparison between supports, paper vs e-reader, is a wrong one. The real comparison should be done between formats"
But it's possible that this same argument hides the future of book - if you interpret "book" as "serial thinking". This summer I was reading "Links, The new science of networks" by A. L. Barabasi and had this idea of looking at printed matter as a network of concepts. In this metaphor, the book has a very small number of nodes (ie points where you can jump away and follow other paths), magazines and newspapers has an average, a web page has a great number. Complexity grows proportionally, and this can give to books a "plus"
While it's true that neither reading a book you're really "serial" in following ideas and concept, I still think that the kind of attention and mindset that is needed in that task is strongly peculiar. I think that being focused and single-tasking is very important for learning. And this can be complementary, not alternative, to the multi-content way you are depicting
So we may need to do another comparison: between logical models of learning. Yes, the youngsters are learning in a multi-tasking way, but are we sure this can be efficient enough?
What if we tip over the usual "book consumption" habits? We had books when young, and the net as adults. In the future it may be the opposite: youngsters will study on a multi-content, multi-tasking media, net based. But getting older they could need a more focused, in-depth, linear reasoning. Couldn't books be a good sort of "unifying media"? :)
Books, obsolete? Not so fast :)
I completely agree that a new format of book will soon emerge and offer dynamic, hypertextual and multimedia experiences beyond what the printed book can ever provide. The list of advantages is long and impressive. But that does not mean that the book will be made obsolete.
You may be talking about non-fiction books and, if so, they will clearly benefit so enormously from being purely digital products that the paper and ink versions will not be worth the time, energy and resources to print and distribute.
But not all books are in this category, not all books need to change with time. Most works of fiction and theater are artistic expressions that reflect the times in which they were written or the state of the artist at the time it was written. Their being static is just fine. Would readers want to have the ability to search the text, look up words that they don't understand, see maps, pictures or videos of the locations cited in the text, listen to the book on an audio device that can convert text to speech or read commentary on the text by scholars or other people? Sure, obviously. But will that kill the book?
Human beings are tactile and sensual creatures, wetware. We like holding things, manipulating them with our hands. There will be a large enough number of people who will want to hold a book in their hands and will not care about "digital enhancements" when reading an engrossing novel. It is what is, and what it is is perfect. Many people will still want to experience the work as the author imagined.
Did mechanical printing kill the market for pen and writing/drawing paper? Did photography kill painting, drawing, lithography or collage? Do you think that 3-D printers will stop people from producing or caring about works cast in bronze or carved out of stone? The sales of vinyl records are sharply up over the past few years...
The market for books as we know them will undoubtedly and forever and fundamentally be changed by the emergence of the new formats that you refer to. But that will not make the book obsolete, imo.
Howard Liptzin
Blog: http://www.luna-park.com/blog
Twitter: howardliptzin